The modern English calendar has been the bane of many a software
designer. Our system of
keeping time consists of months of varying lengths, leap
years, and sometimes leap seconds. There
are 52 weeks and 1 day in a year, except for leap years
of course. Then there is daylight savings
time, which may or may not be followed in some states and
countries. Plus, how many of you
know or even care, that way back in 1752, September had
only 18 days? Such inconsistencies
can drive programmers to the brink of insanity.
Computer calculations involving dates and times are notoriously
difficult to verify fully.
Unfortunately, date/time glitches occur all too often in
the computer industry. It is not unusual for a
large corporation to have a program, which has been working
fine for years, all of a sudden go
crazy because of a date/time related bug. These things happen
all the time!
One such bug is now creating a worldwide hysteria. It is
filling corporate America with dread even
as a whole new mini industry forms around it. This problem
must be big; it even has its own catchy
sounding acronym: Y2K. More formally, this is known as the
"Year 2000 problem."
As the story goes, because programmers have used the last
two digits of the year to store data,
computers may not be able to tell the difference between
the years 2000 and 1900, or 2001 and
1901, causing them figuratively to spark and blow up. Apocalyptic
stories abound from the
ridiculous to the not-so-ridiculous. Airliners could be
grounded because their maintenance is 99
days overdue. Elevators will grind to a halt. Senior citizens
will be sent to pediatric hospitals
because the computer thinks they are children. And phone
bills may not be received on time. The
common theme is that the safe world we humans have created
for ourselves shall turn to chaos.
Confusion reigns supreme on Y2K, so allow me to dispel a
few common myths:
Myth #1: "There is just one Y2K problem."
Reality: There are a multitude of problems which must all
be approached differently.
Myth #2: "The Y2K problems will not occur until the year
2000."
Reality: We are seeing it now in programs which must compute
dates in the future. Calculations
involving loans over 3 years, and calculations involving
retirement funds for 20 year olds when they
turn 65 are just a few examples. Also, a computer has already
sent a 104-year-old patient to a
pediatric physician.
Myth #3. "There are software products on the market which
will automatically detect Y2K
problems and fix them."
Reality: Yes and no. Yes these products exist, but they
are tools which merely help fix some very
specific Y2K problems. You see, there are many different
types of computers, operating systems,
languages and applications involved here. No single Y2K
product is going to solve all of them and
each of these products can only address a very narrow range
of issues in specific computer
environments. Even then, not all bugs may be found. The
only surefire methodology is for a human
being to look at the programs manually and fix them. This
grunt-and-sweat approach is at odds
with the gee whiz "put the program in an oven and wait 5
minutes" approach being espoused by
some hypesters out to make a buck off this hysteria.
But the truth does not stop expensive consulting companies
from charging for "studies." It doesn't
stop companies from hyping products of dubious merit, and
it doesn't stop Wall Street from
pumping up the stocks of those companies in a perceived
market which may not be as big as some
pundits have said. The Gartner group has estimated that
this is a $600 billion problem. Some other
estimates say $500 billion. These figures are the size of
the Gross National Products of some small
nations! Pardon me for being a skeptic, but do these numbers
sound reasonable to anyone from
this solar system?
A Y2K apocalypse is scary stuff; can the doomsayers be right?
The answer is "yes," but only if
nothing is done about it. And therein lies an interesting
paradox. The Y2K problems are so drilled
into computer professionals' minds that they are already
being addressed. They are disappearing
one by one. Because it exists, the hysteria is fixing itself.
You may want to read that last sentence
twice. Okay, maybe three times. A few isolated Y2K problems
are bound to occur here and
there, but a disaster of global proportions seems rather
far-fetched.
Now, let me propose a real heresy to the Y2K zealots. The
market for Y2K products may be
shrinking instead of increasing. Think about it. Y2K problems
have already been seen in some
organizations and have been solved. Other companies have
been quietly phasing in Y2K compliant
software on their own for the last several years while others
are getting started as I write this. Yes,
there are a few niches here and there, but combine the above
facts with the 3- to 4-year shelf life
of many of these products and the future does not look so
bright for the Y2K industry.
I don't know what it is about millennia. During the last
millennial change, predictions about the end
of the world ran rampant through medieval Europe. Yet despite
the ugly aftermath from the fall of
the Roman empire, the Black plague, and Barry Manilow, the
last thousand years turned out pretty
darned well. Don't be fooled this time. Despite the doom-sayers,
the next millennium ought to be a
humdinger. That is, of course, until the English crop circles
are properly decoded, prompting aliens
to wage an all out assault on our planet as predicted by
Nostradamus.
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