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The Gartner Group's widely quoted estimate of $300 billion to $600 billion was for COBOL code only. A more recent estimate for fixing all code, dealing with litigation, lost opportunities, etc., is $4 trillion.
But nobody really knows.
This is from INFORMATIONWEEK (April 16).
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The underestimates of the scope of year 2000 projects have involved not just the amount of time required, but also the amount of money. Gartner Group's well-known estimate of $300 billion to $600 billion in year 2000 costs covers only the expense of repairing Cobol code, says Gartner analyst Matthew Hotle.
In case studies of three companies, Gartner Group found the extent and costs of year 2000 problems in distributed computing environments had been seriously underestimated. The cost of repairing distributed code can be as high as $8.50 per line, compared with only $1.10 for Cobol, Gartner reports.
Estimates for total costs related to the year 2000, including lost business opportunities, litigation, and the cost of making desktop computers, networks, and embedded technology compliant, range as high as $4 trillion, Hotle says.
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