Gary North's Y2K Links and Forums - Mirror- Power_Grid

Gary North's Y2K Links and Forums - Mirror
Category: Power_Grid

(feel free to mail this page)

(Links to documents appear after the summary.)

Electrical power is the Big One. This is the heart of Western Civilization. If the power generation plants fail because of the effects of the Millennium Bug, it's literally over for the West. We are all hooked up to the system. But no public utility will survive if the power goes down and stays down. No business will survive. It will be a total breakdown. As Roberto Vacca titled his 1973 book, it would mean THE COMING DARK AGE.

The issue here is the domino effect. Power generation in the United States relies on coal -- in the range of 40%. The problem here is railway freight. How can the plants get delivery of coal if the railroad system goes down because of noncompliance? Coal delivery problems began in the winter of 1997-98.

Then there is nuclear power, which supplies about 20% of the power generated in the United States. What if the Nuclear Regulatory Commission closes nuclear plants in late 1999 because they are not y2k compliant. At present, they are not compliant. The NRC has sent a warning to all 108 nuclear plants. Take 20% of the nation's power off line in one day -- 40% in some regions -- and what happens to the grid?

The typical large city power plant has something in the range of 5,000 suppliers of goods and services. How will they be paid if the banks go down? Also, how will users pay the power companies? This problem must be dealt with now, not in 2000 and beyond.

The grid may not go down overnight. (Then again, it may.) The problem is erosion: the second law of thermodynamics. Things wear out. How do they supply the plants with replacement parts if the banking system is in a crisis? This is the problem of the division of labor. A banking failure threatens the grid. The failure of the grid threatens everything.

If your local power plant somehow solves these problems, what happens if others don't solve them? What if an overloaded grid shuts down? It could take down your local system. This is the coordination problem: among the local generation stations, among the regional grids, and among the suppliers.

We don't want to think about this. But the problem exists. The articles I've posted give some hint of the magnitude of the problem. There are over 7,800 power-supplying organizations in the United States. They are all tied together in one gigantic mainframe-controlled system that is laced with embedded chips. Canada is tied into our system.

Sometimes power goes down all over a region. There are several regional districts. They are interconnected. Supposedly, the regional grids can be separated from the others if one goes down. But this circuit-breaker system, like everything else on the grids, relies on computers.

"It can't happen," you say. I hope you're correct. Tell me, why can't it happen? Please don't respond, "Because I don't want it to."

Are you dependent on local public utilities that will go down if your local power generation system goes down? Yes, you are. You are TOTALLY dependent, in all likelihood. What if your local power system goes down with the regional system? Or even the national? What if your local system actually does get compliant, but then is pulled into the black hole of the national power grid? Maybe it can pull out in time. Maybe the computers inside the region are all compliant as well as integrated. Don't count on it.

It's not good enough to get a local system y2k-compliant. Most of the power systems of the nation must be compliant or they all go down, region by region, in one gigantic rolling blackout. If New York City goes down, Hog Jowls, Alabama probably will, too.

Then so does every computer in the country, compliant or not. And if they all go down, nobody will be able to repair any of them. There is no tomorrow if the national power grid goes down on Jan. 1, 2000.

Again, I am not predicting this. What I am predicting is that the fractional reserve banking system is at risk, and that government controls on banking will not help to repair that endangered system. I fear erosion: the wearing out of all complex systems and the inability of engineers to get replacement parts because of a failure in the means of payment and a contracting division of labor. If railway freight is compromised at the same time, the likelihood of power failures rises.

Nobody in authority is talking about the relation of y2k and the electrical power generators of the world. Yet there is no issue more critical to our survival.

I am making my personal plans based on what I understand. What I understand is this: (1) there is not one compliant plant in the U.S.; (2) power plants must be supplied with fuel, which requires trains (coal) or nuclear power; (3) power plants rely on suppliers (up to 6,000); (4) things wear out; (5) it takes power to generate power, i.e., the suppliers that make power generation possible. In short, it takes the division of labor. I think the division of labor will collapse in 2000. If the power grid goes completely down, it will stay down. The division of labor will collapse to early 19th century levels, except that we have lost early 19th century skills. This is unthinkable, of course, but I keep thinking about it.

One site is devoted to y2k and electrical power. I suggest that you visit it.

(Other categories: "Domino Effect," "Noncompliant Chips.")

Return to Main Categories

Return to Home Page